Below is a recent (June 1, 2023) Economic Outlook diagnosis from the folks at Capital Group. A few highlights and a link to the entire article (10 minute read). Link to short report, Economic outlook: Mild recession, strong recovery.
As a financial planner with 25 years of experience, I understand that investing can be daunting, especially in uncertain times. With recent news of bank financial distress, it's natural for many clients to feel anxious about the safety of their investments. However, I'm here to assure you that the US economy, markets, and financial system are resilient, and there's no need to panic.
Cable and online financial news (for the average investor) can also be overwhelming and cause investors to make mistakes. The term I use for this news is “Financial Pornography”. I can think of many bad decisions made by viewers of financial porn but narrowed it down to four mistakes the average investor is likely to...
As a professional investor for almost 30 years, I rely on my own experiences to help guide my investment approach. Every crisis is different, but they often have things in common. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 was a difficult time for many investors, with stocks and bonds experiencing significant losses. While it’s impossible to predict...
Although there is no foolproof formula for investing success or failure there are traits that those who do well over the long term possess. As a financial planner with 25 years of experience, I have seen many investors succeed and others struggle. Through my experience, I have identified three primary characteristics or habits of a good investor and three characteristics or habits of poor investors.
Predicting the direction of the market is like predicting when you will hit the bulls-eye in a dart game. The majority of the time throughout market history, the markets have been rising. History shows that the chance of your money growing in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is much like the odds of your next dart hitting any number on the dartboard... except the bulls-eye. If you are going to try and time the market by moving your money in and out, you have to ask yourself how confident are you that you can hit the bullseye when you do.
In simple terms, speculators are trying to out-smart the markets while investors simply participate in the markets. The investment time horizon is also a very important factor as speculation tends to be over the short-term while investing is over the long-term.
We so desperately try to nail down certainty in every area of our life but this pesky thing known as reality gets in our way. The realities of life refuse to conform to our desire for certainty. We make plans for our lives and then reality "happens" and throws a monkey wrench into our plans.
Just like we do not know when we are in a recession (until after it has started), the markets begin their recovery in the midst of bad news. It is critical top your wealth to understand this fact: the markets (stocks & bonds) typically reflect where the economy is headed in 3-6 months from today. If you wait for the news to tell you the markets have recovered, the economy has turned around you probably missed out on a good portion of the initial recovery.
Most of us make the same mistake with our money over and over: We buy high (when the economy and markets are up) out of greed and sell low (when the economy and markets are down) out of fear, despite knowing on an intellectual level that it is a very bad idea.